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United Healthcare May Withdraw From Obamacare Next Year


withdraw A few days ago, UnitedHealthcare announced that the possibility of withdrawing from the Obamacare health insurance exchanges. This is a significant announcement, as UnitedHealthcare is one of the biggest insurers in the country. The impact of withdrawl would affect hundreds of thousands of people with regard to their healthplans; the timing — right before 2016 elections — would be critical.

HHS is predicting 10 million enrollees in 2016, which is half of what was originally projected when Obamacare was passed. It’s unlikely that enrollment will suddenly surge this year, which means that the financial instability of the entire model will continue.

If UnitedHealthcare decides to discontinue next year, those with their coverage will have to — yet again — choose another plan, but this time from a smaller list of coverage providers. Since Open Enrollment begins in the fall, right around Election time, such a move could wreak havoc on the final stretch.

One economist suggests that prices will increase even more.

“The year 2017 is significant for insurers, because that’s the year when several programs designed to mitigate risk for insurers through federal backstops go away. The hope was that those programs would act as training wheels for Obamacare in its first few years of implementation, but after that, the insurers were supposed to be able to thrive on their own. UnitedHealth’s statement suggests otherwise.

If UnitedHealth and other insurers decide to exit, remaining insurers will be forced to take on even more high-risk enrollees, prompting them to either raise rates further or exit themselves. That in turn would deprive individuals of choices and remove competition, a key purpose of the exchanges.”

So don’t expect United to suddenly see a reason to get back into the 2017 market, not without hefty risk-corridor subsidies — which under any other circumstances would be called “corporate welfare.” Given that Congress isn’t likely to reverse course and underwrite ObamaCare losses, the path to the exit remains the likely course for United, and perhaps some of its competitors, too.

United says it will remain committed to its Medicaid and Medicare businesses, and of course it will stick with its employer-based group coverage, where the issues of ObamaCare regulation have less impact.”

“But UnitedHealth and other insurers need more Americans to come into the public exchanges because the patients that are signing up for coverage are sicker, making a “higher overall risk pool,” insurance executives say. It’s a key reason many Americans are seeing rate increases of 10 percent or more across the country on public exchanges.

United has discovered that the trade-offs in mandates and forced coverage don’t pay off. It’s a bait-and-switch for insurers by the Obama administration, but it’s even worse of a bait-and-switch for consumers.

Subsidies do not mitigate the fact that consumers have to pay both the premium and then thousands of dollars for care out of their own pocket before insurance takes effect, except in rare and catastrophic circumstances.

Consumers used to have an option for that kind of health insurance – catastrophic coverage, used to indemnify against unforeseen major health events. Those policies featured low premiums and left routine care for consumers to negotiate directly with providers on a cash basis. Combined with health-savings accounts (HSAs), those plans offered a rational approach to balancing health and economic requirements, especially for younger consumers who rarely need more than one or two clinic visits a year, which would cost far less than either comprehensive-coverage premiums or deductibles even in the pre-ACA era.

Instead of “affordable care” promised by President Obama and Democrats, consumers have instead discovered they have effectively been forced to pay for catastrophic health insurance at comprehensive-plan prices. They have become victims of a bait-and-switch scheme that the government would vigorously prosecute – if it wasn’t masterminding the scheme itself.”

Reince Priebus Responds Forcefully to the CNBC Debate Debacle

Reince Priebus had a swift and forceful response to the mockery that was the CNBC debate hosted on Wednesday night. Though I am not particularly a fan of the RNC, in this instance, Priebus was correct to call out the behavior of the moderators and the breech of agreement that occurred. Here’s his letter in full below:

Mr. Andrew Lack
Chairman, NBC News
30 Rockefeller Plaza
New York, New York 10112

Dear Mr. Lack,

I write to inform you that pending further discussion between the Republican National Committee (RNC) and our presidential campaigns, we are suspending the partnership with NBC News for the Republican primary debate at the University of Houston on February 26, 2016. The RNC’s sole role in the primary debate process is to ensure that our candidates are given a full and fair opportunity to lay out their vision for America’s future. We simply cannot continue with NBC without full consultation with our campaigns.

The CNBC network is one of your media properties, and its handling of the debate was conducted in bad faith. We understand that NBC does not exercise full editorial control over CNBC’s journalistic approach. However, the network is an arm of your organization, and we need to ensure there is not a repeat performance.

CNBC billed the debate as one that would focus on “the key issues that matter to all voters—job growth, taxes, technology, retirement and the health of our national economy.” That was not the case. Before the debate, the candidates were promised an opening question on economic or financial matters. That was not the case. Candidates were promised that speaking time would be carefully monitored to ensure fairness. That was not the case. Questions were inaccurate or downright offensive. The first question directed to one of our candidates asked if he was running a comic book version of a presidential campaign, hardly in the spirit of how the debate was billed.

While debates are meant to include tough questions and contrast candidates’ visions and policies for the future of America, CNBC’s moderators engaged in a series of “gotcha” questions, petty and mean-spirited in tone, and designed to embarrass our candidates. What took place Wednesday night was not an attempt to give the American people a greater understanding of our candidates’ policies and ideas.

I have tremendous respect for the First Amendment and freedom of the press. However, I also expect the media to host a substantive debate on consequential issues important to Americans. CNBC did not.

While we are suspending our partnership with NBC News and its properties, we still fully intend to have a debate on that day, and will ensure that National Review remains part of it.

I will be working with our candidates to discuss how to move forward and will be in touch.

Sincerely,

Reince Priebus
Chairman, Republican National Committee

IRS Is Gearing Up To Take On 501c4s Again

During Congressional testimony on Tuesday, John Koskinen defended his tenure as Commissioner of the IRS against stirrings of impeachment among some elected officials. Koskinen maintained that there has been an ample turnover of personnel, as well as disciplinary reviews within the IRS, so that the IRS has been positively rehabilitated since the scandal erupted in 2013.

While the accusation of charges against Koskinen — accused of “misleading the public and destroying documents that were being sought under a congressional subpoena” — was newsworthy, another portion of his testimony was just as important, but went largely unreported by the the media: the future role of 501c4s.

Koskinen framed part of the reason for the IRS targeting scandal on confusing rules, “leaving the nonprofit groups and IRS auditors uncertain about what activity was allowed.” However, this assertion is utterly nonsensical, as the rules that govern 501c4 activity have been in place since 1959. So why the sudden interest in the last couple of years to create (or “clarify”) rules that limit activities by nonprofit organizations? Because of the 2016 election.

Don’t forget — the IRS tried to do a major rewrite in 2014 ahead of midterm elections, but received an unprecedented amount of comments during the IRS rulemaking comment period. If you added together all of the comments on all Treasury and IRS draft proposals from the seven prior years and doubled that you came close to the number of responses received, which was more than 150,000. In light of the overwhelming response on the proposed changes, the IRS decided to delay any rules changes.

So here we are on the threshold of another major election cycle, and we have the IRS announcing it will be stirring the pot. The Washington Times reported that Koskinen hopes, “that we’d be able to provide these proposed new rules early enough next year so that they could — the work on them can be completed well in advance of the election so there wouldn’t be any confusion.” And more: “But I would stress that the work that we’re doing now is focused on clarifying — not changing — but clarifying the rules under which organizations operate.”

Yet this is onerous and unnecessary. These are your social welfare organizations, for which advocacy for “the common good and general welfare” is their primary purpose. They differ from 501c3, which are your charitable organizations; 501c5s, your labor unions; and 501c6s, your trade organizations. The one thing all of these organizations do have in common is that they are all tax-exempt organizations.

501c4s are not tax-deductible precisely because they are not political organizations. They serve to educate by being issue-based. This is protected under free speech; so long as the 501c4 sticks to an issue and not advocate for a particular candidate, it is not considered political speech and therefore it cannot be curbed. They can talk about policies and positions, not people.

These social welfare groups can therefore participate in the political arena as long as they maintain education as their primary purpose. Some examples of 501c4s would be the National Rifle Association (NRA), American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), Americans for Tax Reform (ATR), and the Sierra Club. 501c4s themselves have been around for nearly 100 years, and the regulations that currently govern them have been in place since 1959.

And yet the IRS has been increasingly adamant about clarifying the rules for social welfare organizations that have been in place for more than 50 years. And why only the social welfare organizations — not the unions or trade organizations?

It is well known that on issue-based advocacy, the Republicans have made much better use of 501c4s than the Democrats. So of course, the Democrats want to find a way to disrupt this. Dozens of articles in recent years have documented how this conservative group and that conservative group spent money on political ads, more than the liberal groups — as if that is somehow unfair. It’s perfectly fair and perfectly legal, except when the Democrats are on the losing/receiving end.

This situation is reminiscent of the repeated attempts to implement the “Fairness Doctrine” for talk radio, pushing to give conservative and liberal talk radio shows “equal air time” — because the conservatives dominate that market as well.

The IRS tried reforming 501c4s in 2014 because they knew the Democrats were vulnerable. It didn’t get done then, and 2014 was a disaster year for Democrats. What better way to stifle the ability for conservatives to message than by attacking the methodology? The Democrats, in cahoots with the Obama Administration, are working in tandem with the IRS to change to the way social welfare organizations function by introducing very specific and onerous rule “clarifications”.

By trying to redefine some activities as “political” instead of advocacy, they would be opened to being limited or even banned — activities which serve to provide education for the common good, as they always have.

Critics of the way 501c4s operate, which allow their donors to remain protected, suggest that the 501c4s are somehow gaming the system — using phrases like “secret donors” and “secret activity” to inflame the public against 501c4s. But this is patently untrue.

Political donors are required to be disclosed under campaign finance, but since 501c4s are specifically not political organizations, the donor names do not need to be made public. Their anonymity is protected under the Right of Free Association. Those who are on the receiving end of 501c4 activities to educate the populace during the election cycle, however, are now pushing for this to change in order to reveal citizens identities.

Therefore turning a simple and known definition of a 501c4 into a new and incomprehensible one, has the effect of stifling speech. Even the mere presence of such a proposal will have detrimental affect. Why? The possibility of new regulations becoming permanent rules will have 501c4s worried about potential infractions — especially as we are recovering from the 2013 IRS targeting scandal, especially since the IRS has been known to issue rules that are effective immediately, and even retroactively.

The most egregious part is that we probably won’t have the ability to comment on proposed changes this time around. According to the IRS bulletin (last revised April 2015), the IRS states, “Given the diversity of views expressed and the volume of substantive input, we have concluded that it would be more efficient and useful to hold a public hearing after we publish the revised proposed regulation. Treasury and the IRS remain committed to providing updated standards for tax-exemption that are fair, clear, and easier to administer.”

In other words, they don’t want to hear feedback this time around. What good is a “public hearing?” It’s not, of course, at least for the public. But from the vantage point of the 2016 presidential elections, the effect of curbing or scaring the activity of 501c4s during the upcoming election cycle is beneficial. What organization would risk the potential for increased scrutiny and possible violation from the IRS, knowing that the IRS has been operating in an unjust and partisan matter? They wouldn’t. So the 501c4s would have to be more careful for at least the time being, which plays right into the timing of the important 2016 election cycle activity.

The IRS continues to act in an incompetent manner. That they are targeting 501c4s, and not c5s and c6s, show that there is an inherent bias internally within the IRS. No one can look at the situation and not think that this isn’t being done to have an affect on our political cycles. This is not how the IRS is supposed to function in our country.

Rick Santorum’s Tax Plan


The only reason why I am mentioning this plan is the sheer ridiculousness of its foundation. In his editorial in the Wall Street Journal today, Santorum announces that he will pay for his tax plan by “repealing ObamaCare and all of its associated taxes.” That is patently absurd. No matter how much I may dislike Obamacare, the likelihood that it will be entirely repealed is slim to none. To stake an entire tax plan (flat tax at that) on something likely to be unattainable, is a bit foolish and naive.

You can read the plan below in its entirety:

Since 2007, 15,000 American factories have shut down and more than two million manufacturing jobs have been lost. Wages have flatlined; American families are struggling.

In every recovery since 1960, real GDP grew by 4% a year, according to a report from the Congressional Joint Economic Committee. The Obama-Biden policies have resulted in a paltry 2.3% annual growth since the recession ended in 2009. This growth gap has cost the country $5.4 trillion in lost economic output and 5.5 million fewer jobs than would have been expected during a normal recovery.

So what is Hillary Clinton’s vision to get the economy moving? She wants to slam investors with higher capital gains taxes. Bernie Sanders wants to raise the top personal-income tax rate to 90%.

Donald Trump’s plan to make America great again? He’s offering a complicated tax cut that the Tax Foundation reports will explode the deficit by more than $10 trillion over a decade. Are any Republicans offering serious, specific proposals to scrap the toxic tax code? Jeb Bush wants three rates. Marco Rubio wants two. Rand Paul has proposed a single rate and creating a European-style value-added tax.

America deserves better. That’s why, in my first 100 days as president, I will submit to Congress a comprehensive Economic Freedom Agenda that will abolish the existing tax code. Under “The 20/20 Flat Tax: A Clear Vision For America,” individuals will pay a simple, low 20% individual rate that will be applied to all streams of income. It eliminates the marriage penalty, death tax and alternative minimum tax. It will treat every American the same. No longer will savings and investment be penalized.

Individuals will receive a $2,750 credit, which will replace the standard deduction and personal exemption. The credit will be refundable and replace the Earned Income Tax Credit. The child tax credit will remain. For low- and middle-income workers, the provision will shield much of their basic wages from federal income taxes. They can keep more of what they earn.

In exchange for the refundable tax credit and low rate, itemized deductions will be eliminated, except for two. Charitable giving in any amount will be fully deductible, to affirm and encourage Americans’ generosity. Mortgage interest—up to $25,000 a year—will also be deductible, as a means of helping low- and middle-income workers buy and maintain their family home without subsidizing millionaires and billionaires.

Businesses too will benefit from a flat 20% tax rate. It will replace the current corporate income-tax rate of 39.1% that is only exceeded by Chad and the United Arab Emirates. An initial 0% tax rate on American manufacturers, phasing up to 20% over two years, will help make America the No. 1 manufacturer in the world again.

Companies will be allowed to deduct 100% of their capital costs in the first year. Full expensing will eliminate complicated depreciation schedules and encourage investment in new plants and equipment. To encourage American companies to bring revenues home and reinvest the $2.1 trillion in profits that have been parked overseas, my plan calls for a low 10% rate on business income that is repatriated.

I will eliminate the deductibility of interest and corporate welfare, including all carve-outs, loopholes and tax shelters. No more special deals and favors for the rich and powerful and their lawyers and lobbyists.

An analysis of my plan by the Tax Foundation found that GDP would rise by 10.2% above the Obama-Biden trajectory over 10 years. Capital investment would grow by almost 30% and wages would increase by 7.3%. More than 3.1 million additional jobs would be created beyond current projections.

I will pay for my plan by repealing ObamaCare and all of its associated taxes. My flat tax will reduce federal revenues by $1.1 trillion over 10 years, after accounting for increased GDP growth and job creation. But according to the Congressional Budget Office, repealing ObamaCare will reduce federal spending by $1.7 trillion over 10 years and increase economic growth by 0.7% annually.

Thus, the 20/20 Flat Tax will not increase the deficit. It will allow us to make needed reforms, such as the expansion of Health Savings Accounts, to give patients and doctors, not Washington bureaucrats, more freedom and control over their health care, and to expand coverage. The new tax code will also provide the resources needed to rebuild our military in an increasingly volatile world.

To maximize the country’s economic potential I will, on my first day in office, repeal each and every Obama-administration regulation that creates an economic burden of more than $100 million. The Keystone XL pipeline will be approved, and expanded production of domestic fuels will be encouraged, not hobbled by federal regulations.

As a U.S. senator I never voted for a tax increase, and the first two bills I co-sponsored were the Balanced Budget Amendment and the Line Item Veto. I always fought for bold tax cuts and government reform. My administration will be no different.

The stakes for America are too high for the GOP to nominate untested newcomers, first-term senators, or governors without proven national results. I offer Americans a clear conservative vision, serious plans for reform and the experience to get the job done.

Mr. Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, is a Republican candidate for president.

Rand Paul’s Tax Plan: A Different Perspective

Daniel Mitchell, a libertarian economist and Senior Fellow at the CATO Institute, offered an overall positive review of Rand Paul’s tax plan that was released today. He had three minor quibbles and one major concern with the proposal. It his his evaluation of Paul’s 14.5% business activity tax that is the interesting point for discussion — Mitchell asserts is a Value-Added Tax (VAT) for all intents and purposes.

Paul’s argues that he “would also apply this uniform 14.5% business-activity tax on all companies…. This tax would be levied on revenues minus allowable expenses, such as the purchase of parts, computers and office equipment. All capital purchases would be immediately expensed, ending complicated depreciation schedules.”

As Mitchell points out, the high corporate tax rate (35%) would be reduced down to 14.5% which is obviously a great thing. His bone of contention is the “business-activity tax doesn’t allow a deduction for wages and salaries” and therefore, “he is turning the corporate income tax into a value-added tax (VAT).” In theory, he argues, a VAT would not be a terrible thing because “is a consumption-based tax which does far less damage to the economy, on a per-dollar-collected basis, than the corporate income tax.”

However, the VAT’s place in other economies have proven to be, as Mitchell suggests, “a money machine for big government”, and therefore Mitchell cautions against its implementation in the United States.

Mitchell contends,

“The VAT helped finance the giant expansion of the welfare state in Europe. And the VAT is now being used to enable ever-bigger government in Japan. Heck, even the IMF has provided evidence (albeit inadvertently) that the VAT is a money machine. All of which helps to explain why it would be a big mistake to give politicians this new source of revenue.

Indeed, this is why I was critical of Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan four years ago. It’s why I’ve been leery of Congressman Ryan’s otherwise very admirable Roadmap plan. And it’s one of the reasons why I feared Mitt Romney’s policies would have facilitated a larger burden of government.

These politicians may have had their hearts in the right place and wanted to use the VAT to finance pro-growth tax reforms. But I can’t stop worrying about what happens when politicians with bad motives get control. Particularly when there are safer ways of achieving the same objectives.”

Mitchell gives an alternative suggestion for reforming the corporate part of the tax code. He calls for “an incremental reform”, consisting of the following:

–Lower the corporate tax rate
–Replace depreciation with expensing
–Replace worldwide taxation with territorial taxation

His suggestion is that if there is enough support within Congress to potentially reform the corporate income tax (and replace it with a VAT), there should also be support for an alternative reform done incrementally, which would be far better in the long run than introducing a VAT for good.

So are Mitchell’s concerns about Paul’s “business activity tax” valid? Is it essentially a VAT? Pretty much. The VAT gets added to products along the way in the process of production and distribution, and is ultimately passed on to the consumer in the form of the final price.

One could certainly argue that the VAT is not a positive solution for reasons such as the fact that European economies which have the VAT are also in shambles. Also, though many of the VATs started out small, most VATs average nearly 20%. That would likely happen here too — while we still continue to collect an income tax. What’s more, it also tends to disproportionately affect small businesses because they often can’t pass along the cost increases associated with the VAT, and compliance will be burdensome and expensive.

Overall, though, Mitchell was pleased with Rand Paul’s plan, which is to be expected from a fellow libertarian economist. His points about the business activity tax are fair, but Paul’s roadmap is overall a decent one. As more contenders for 2016 release their tax plans, we’ll evaluate them here. Thoughts?