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New York’s Budget Solution

For years, I’ve been pounding the table about how public sector wages and compensations have steadily outpaced those found in the private sector. This is no more readily apparent than in New York where runaway budgets and deficits continuously fleece the taxpayer. 

The private sector has several factors in place that help control runaway costs, chief among them being competition. The profit motive in the private sector keeps compensation at levels where economic factors limit them to their true market value, reflecting economically rational and fair compensation levels. On the other hand, there are no such competitive inhibitions in the public sector where politics and cronyism, rather than economics, create a fairy-tale negotiation for wages and benefits.

Here’s a tale of two states: New York and Florida. In New York, it is clear that public service unions are a significant reason why the cost of living is higher.  In 2010, Florida’s population was 18.8 million while New York’s was 19.3 million. In the past ten years, New York experienced population stagnation (19.4m) while in Florida, the population grew to 21.8 million and continues to be one of the fastest growing states in the country. Yet crucially, over the same period, New York’s budget increased to $177 billion while Florida’s was a mere $93 billion, up from 70.4 billion in 2010. One could argue that New York does more for its people than Florida does, but the reality is that they just spend more money. Bloated public service payrolls and off-the-charts cost burdens of regulation are the main culprits. And that’s the problem.

I propose that the people of New York withdraw its authorization to its elected officials to enter into any contracts with public service unions that provide compensation, benefits, and terms in excess of those being paid for similar work and skills in the private sector. Furthermore, there should be a requirement that restricts any federal government employee from receiving a raise if it puts his compensation in excess of the benefits and wages paid for the same work in the private sector.

By “competing” per se with the private sector for compensation, the government can do its part to help keep its budget and deficits from getting any more out of control.

New York’s Indefensible Bailout

New York’s state budget director, Robert F. Mujica, Jr., wrote an anemic, laughable Letter to the Editor (printed in the Wall Street Journal) trying to defend New York’s fiscal record in an effort to get a federal bailout. Those of us who live in New York couldn’t help but notice it was full of half-truths. For instance, Mr. Mujica boasted lowering income-tax rates, but neglected to include the fact that Florida doesn’t even have an income tax yet still manages to operate on a budget of $93 million vs NY’s $177 million — in a state with 2 million more people!

Furthermore, he talks about a 20% increase of private-sector jobs, but leaves out the fact that “private job growth in Florida has been about 60% higher than in New York from Jan 2010 to Jan 2020.”

Likewise, he claims that New Yorkers send $29 billion more in taxes to the federal government than it gets back, but fails to mention that the reason for this is New York’s tax code punishes high income earners by adding extra taxes, so much that some earners pay nearly 50% of their earnings in taxes! Nor does he mention that many wealthy New Yorkers have wised up to being fleeced over the last decade, making New York one of the top ten out-migration states in order for earners to try to keep their own income — some going to Florida, no less. This loss undoubtedly contributes to the $6 billion budget shortfall that existed before Coronavirus even hit, something that was also conveniently left out of his defense.

Finally, Mr. Mujica tries to suggest that the $29 billion New Yorkers send to the federal government somehow subsidizes Florida’s budget because Florida receives $30 billion more from the federal government than Floridians send. But he leaves out the fact that New York’s budget contains 35.9% of federal money compared to Florida’s 32.8%. With a budget of $177 billion, that’s $63 billion of spending from federal dollars compared to $30 billion in Florida. Who is more fiscally irresponsible?

If states like New York are not willing to take any of the economic risk going forward, they should not get any money. They have willfully chosen to engage in a prolonged economic lockdown in hopes that someone else pays for it. Florida was one of the last states to shut down and has begun opening up once again, understanding the need for economic recovery. If New York wants to continue to take the economic risk of staying closed while other localities choose to reopen, they should be the ones to pay for it.

The DeVos Budget Debacle

It seems like spending reductions, smaller government, and eliminating waste are no longer Republican ideals. When Education Secretary Betsy DeVos presented a budget that did just that, Congress turned a deaf ear. What’s more, they made it difficult for her to even make some systemic changes to the Department of Education that (like most departments) desperately needs.

As part of the massive spending bill that was passed last week, Congress “awarded the department a $2.6 billion boost when Mrs. DeVos had requested a $9 billion cut. She had sought to dismantle her agency’s central budget office, a move she said would create a leaner structure, and to cut the number of field offices in the civil-rights division to four from 12. The spending package included specific measures preventing her from doing so.”

Apparently, trying to implement change caused some problems among more seasoned politicians that Congress just put a stop to by hamstringing her efforts at education and fiscal reform: “in the spending package, lawmakers forbade Mrs. DeVos from dismantling the budget office and increased the civil-rights division’s funding by $8.5 million, specifying that the additional money couldn’t be used to reduce staff, such as through buyouts. The civil-rights division is tasked with, among other things, enforcing Title IX.”

It’s a shame that politics over policy has gotten so pervasive even among Republicans. Such ridiculous behavior shows how broken our system has become — which is why it’s getting more and more likely that a huge Democrat sweep will happen at midterms.

Dealing with the Ten Year Budget Reconciliation Issue

A major problem in constructing tax legislation is the “No deficit after 10 years” problem.

It takes a 60 vote majority in the Senate to pass permanent legislation. A key exception is what is known as “budget reconciliation”, whereby financial budget items, including tax changes, can pass with a simple majority vote. But this requires that any proposed legislation cannot produce a deficit after 10 years. To satisfy this requirement, legislation often contains a provision that it will terminate at the end of the tenth year.

The Bush tax cuts of 2001 (and 2003) was the poster child for that problem. Tax rates were reduced in 2001 and 2003 using budget reconciliation This required that the lower rates would automatically expire (sunset) in 2011 so as to comply with the “no deficit after 10 years” issue. Everyone ignored the cuts which then became a big headache and political battle when the time came to renew them –  or let them expire.  After ten years, the lower rates suddenly terminated for those most important for growing the economy, creating one of the largest tax increases and worst economic recoveries in history. This disaster has made Congress hesitant of passing badly needed tax cuts and reform in fear of the 10 year spring back. But this does not to be so.

The best way to deal with sunset clauses within the tax code is to extend them annually during the budget process so that we don’t enact a tax change and then forget about it over time. This is something to consider as Congress embarks on potential major reforms  to the tax code in the coming months.

Trump’s tax reform proposal includes a major pro-growth change to depreciation rules. The change would allow for claiming an immediate deduction for the cost of new equipment, without having to spread the write–off over many years.  This would be a boon to the economy. But due to budget constraints this change would likely be scheduled to terminate after 10 years. That should not be allowed to happen. Instead Congress should examine the policy yearly, and extend it out an additional year  from that date. This way the tenth year will never come and there will be no unnecessary tax battle.  This process could continue until there are the votes to make the provision permanent.

Obama’s Budget: $4.1 Trillion

President Obama’s final budget was submitted today, a $4.1 trillion millstone for American taxpayers. The budget was chock full of tax hikes in order to fund Obama’s pet projects, and “proposed investments in infrastructure, cyber security, education, and job growth.” The FY2017 budget has an $503 billion deficit, which would follow the heels of the projected budget deficit for the current FY2016, $616 billion.

Highlights from the bill include:

— $11 billion for the Departments of Defense and State to fight Islamic State militants and stabilize Syria
— $19 billion for cyber security investments across the U.S. government
— a $10.25 per barrel tax on imported and domestically produced oil to fund transportation infrastructure such as mass transit and high speed rail
— eliminating including the “carried interest” loophole allowing investment fund managers to treat income as capital gains
— impose the “Buffett Rule” to ensure that millionaires pay a tax rate of no less than 30 percent of their income after charitable contributions
— a new fee on the liabilities of the largest banks that would raise $111 billion over 10 years and discourage excessive leverage in the financial system.
— $152 billion for research and development

On the cost savings side, Obama’s budget seeks to reduce deficits by $2.9 trillion over the next decade. “The budget forecasts that deficits would average 2.5 percent of U.S. economic output over 10 years compared to about 4.0 percent in the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate, which is based on existing tax and spending laws.”

From the looks of this budget, President Obama clearly foresees or at least champions a Bernie Sanders presidency. Big tax increases on the wealthy are predictable, but the proposed bank “fee” is a new concept. It’s the last gasp of a failed presidency mired by economic illiteracy.