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Weak Business Investment a Result of Unrelenting, Anti-Business Policies

Earlier in the month, Steven Russolillo correctly reported on weak business investment as a key reason for poor economic growth. However, it was incredibly frustrating that as an economic writer, Russolillo, could actually suggest this was a surprising phenomenon. It’s not surprising. In fact, it’s downright predictable. The Obama Administration has been steadily undermining businesses for years and this is the fallout of their policies.

Even though Russolillo should have known this, he could have also easily interviewed any number of business owners for his article; if he did, he would have found a multitude of reasons for weak business investment, including 1) anti-business attitudes; 2) threats of higher taxes; 3) actual higher taxes; and 4) increased government regulations. Instead, Russolillo made the rookie mistake of only talking to fellow economists, the ones who look at data and trends instead of actually being in the trenches of everyday business activity.

Russolillo acts as if low rates are the only key to business spending; they’re not. Businesses won’t spend if they continue to feel the threat of the government’s heavy-hand. Better to keep the company stabilized than attempt to stretch and expand and invest; you have no idea what new regulation or new tax will continue to wreak havoc on your long-term business plans and cash flow — they way this administration has done for the last seven years.

Businesses are tired of being treated as an both a source of extra government revenue and a playground for intrusive, burdensome policies that hurt, rather than help, our economy. It’s a no-brainer to anyone who is anyone in the business world why businesses are hesitant to invest; it’s a shame that more economists don’t know how to engage in critical thinking and basic journalism.

Boudreaux: The Inefficiency of Rent Control

Don Boudreaux over at Cafe Hayek does a nice piece a few weeks ago, outlining the inefficiency of rent control. As his comments on the subject were part of a larger discussion, I have summarized his points below. If you want to go back to the original, you can go here.
Brian,

Boudreaux notes that “the assumption of a perfectly inelastic supply of rental housing is not realistic.” But at the same time, he wagers it is incorrect to say that, were this assumption to hold in reality, rent control would create no deadweight loss.

In what Deirdre McCloskey calls “the first act” there is indeed, unlike with an upward-sloping supply curve of rental housing, no deadweight loss. It’s all transfer from landlords to tenants. But unless we assume also a perfectly inelastic demand for rental housing, rent control will in the second act cause current and prospective renters to waste resources as each competes to increase his or her chances of securing one of the rent-controlled apartments. Losses – ones in every relevant way comparable to conventional deadweight losses – ensue.

Picture a standard supply-and-demand graph, but one in which the supply curve is perfectly vertical. With the demand curve shaped as it usually is – namely, sloping downward to the right – rent control will still cause a shortage of rental housing. Tenants will therefore compete more vigorously – now using only non-price means of competition – to secure these rental units. The use of resources in such non-price competition – for example, wining and dining landlords, racing or keeping constant vigilance to sign up for newly vacated rental units, whatever – is a waste of resources from society’s perspective.

It’s true that these wastes are conventionally called “rent-seeking wastes” rather than “deadweight losses.” But Boudreaux takes Gordon Tullock’s point to be that rent-seeking-‘rectangle’ losses are no less real or important losses than are deadweight-loss (or Harberger) ‘triangle’ losses: both losses act as deadweights on society. Valuable goods and services that would otherwise have been produced remain unproduced because of the interventions that cause these losses. Both losses emerge because government interventions render uses of resources that were once profitable now unprofitable. Both losses ‘measure’ the reduction in valuable output. Both losses ‘measure’ the reduction in the size of the economic pie.

Boudreaux doesn’t wish to defend too strongly his claim that rent-seeking losses should be called and classified as “deadweight losses” (although I do believe that that claim is defensible). But he does wish to insist that the absence of conventionally defined deadweight losses does not mean that an intervention, such as rent control, effects only a transfer and, therefore, causes no real losses. The resulting non-price competition among potential renters results in losses.

Note too that he mentions neither rent-seeking efforts by tenants to secure rent-control regulation from government nor rent-‘protecting’* efforts by landlords to fight rent control. These rent-seeking and rent-‘protecting’ efforts only increase the social losses from rent control beyond the losses that Boudreaux identifies above.

Smith: What CEOs Should Be Saying About Inequality

My friend Fred Smith over at Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) wrote a nice piece on the subject of income inequality.
Smith discusses the common beliefs and untruths of the topic, reminding us that “to the extent that inequality is a problem, it is because people are kept from working, saving, and investing in ways that make the most sense for them by bad government policies.” I have reprinted his piece in its entirety below:

“Despite living at a time of unprecedented decreases in poverty around the world, we’re witnessing a seemingly unprecedented increase in worry about income inequality in wealthy countries like the United States. And, not surprisingly, capitalism and its practitioners are often said to be to blame. When the news media and the general public look to the nation’s business leaders for an explanation, however, the response is rarely inspiring.

Whether it’s Fortune profiling “7 Billionaires Worried about Income Inequality” or Chief Executive listening while “8 CEOs Weigh in on Income Inequality,” we hear a lot of platitudes about how income inequality is a divisive social problem that “has to be dealt with,” followed quickly by a mumbled caveat about how this vitally important challenge, of course, does not require drastic measures like capping CEO pay or anything that would impact the competitiveness of one’s own firm.

On the other hand, we do hear a few high-profile CEOs advising political leaders to deal with inequality concerns by doubling-down on existing anti-poverty programs. Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman is pushing an increase in the minimum wage and Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett is recommending an expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). Unfortunately the fact that higher minimum wages actually result in fewer low-wage jobs gets only slightly more acknowledgement than the fact that the EITC fraud rate is one of the worst of any government program. More of that? No, thank you.

So what should the titans of Wall Street be saying about this terrible scourge of some Americans being richer than most other Americans? Let’s start with the basics:

First, inequality per se in a game of envy and class warfare. Any objective measure of poverty or deprivation deserves its own assessment and debate and, if appropriate, its own public policy response. No one ever went without food, shelter, clothing, education, or healthcare just because the Gini coefficient was higher than 0.57. As my colleagues Iain Murray and Ryan Young discuss in a new study “People, Not Ratios,” statistical measurements of inequality are no substitute for focusing on the quality of life of real people. Ryan Bourne and Christopher Snowdon of the UK’s Institute for Economic Affairs come to the same conclusion in their own study, also released this week.

Second, it’s better to lift the floor than lower the ceiling (and again, that’s doesn’t mean raising the minimum wage). The best way to help people earn a better living – let’s consider a revolutionary idea – is to get rid of the obstacles that block people from earning a better living. This means, among other things, repealing an array of labor rules and licensing restrictions, both at the federal and state level. And, as Bloomberg View’s Megan McArdle reminds us, we can’t fall into the trap of thinking “entrepreneurs” have to be unicorn-founding tech gurus. Anyone who finds a new way to make money (or an old way to make more money) can be an entrepreneur, even if they never give a TED talk or buy a mega-yacht.

Third, economic inequality, the measurement of which is itself the subject of contentious debate, rises and falls for a variety of reasons. Jim Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute points out that the 1990s economic expansion, the years before the Great Recession and dotcom bust that we’re all supposed to be pining for, also saw a significant increase of inequality, while the mortgage meltdown gave us a decrease. Inequality rose and fell long before Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century made headlines for becoming the most unread book of 2014, and the self-righteousness pandering about it that followed hasn’t improved anyone’s quality of life (unless, of course, you’re an Ivy League graduate student looking for a research grant).

Fourth, prosperity is not automatic. For thousands of years, most of the human race was dirt poor, and then, a couple of hundred years ago, living standards began shooting up. First in Europe and the U.S., but then dramatically all over the world. We have a good idea why this amazing thing happened, and the economist Deirdre McCloskey gives the best explanation of it: liberty. A political and social system that allows everyone to seek their chosen goals according to their own merits with as few restrictions as possible has moved the world from perpetual poverty to widespread prosperity. Hard work, commerce, and thrift – what Deirdre calls the “bourgeois virtues” – will get you a happier, healthier, and more peaceful society every time. Whatever brilliant new plans for reordering the economy that the inequality activists come up with, we ignore this lesson as our peril.

So there you have it, my CEO friends. If your critics come at you with questions about what you or your company are doing about inequality, tell them you’re selling goods and services to willing customers. You’re not cheating or defrauding anyone. You follow the rules and pay your taxes – even when they finance less-than-effective government programs. To the extent that inequality is a problem, it is because people are kept from working, saving, and investing in ways that make the most sense for them by bad government policies. We have real problems and challenges in this country – inequality, on its own, is not one of them.”

Lowest Business Investment since the recession

Marketwatch is reporting dismal numbers related to economic growth in the first three months of 2016; expansion is “the slowest pace in two years as business slashed investment by the steepest amount since the Great Recession.”

GDP growth was significantly reduced as well — recording a .5% annual growth rate. The prior three quarters were 1.4%, 2% and 3.9% in the preceeding year, per quarter.

Marketwatch suggests that some economists contend this sluggishness is an anomaly and will bounce back this spring, estimating a 200,000 job growth for April numbers, which will be released on the first Friday in May. Those with this sentiment predict that “the economy will speed up to a 2.6% annual clip in the spring, typically the fastest growing quarter of the year. The same pattern occurred in both 2015 and 2014.”

On the other hand, I tend to side with economists who are a little bit leery about a robust-growth outlook. “A tepid global economic scene and a tumultuous U.S. presidential election marked by heavy anti-corporate rhetoric appears to have made business executives more cautious.”

Business investment is certainly anemic, and we’ve recently crossed the threshold of more businesses closing than opening. None of this is a sign of a healthy economy, and I doubt very much that the April numbers will be so rosy.

The Decline of American Business Start-ups

The number of new businesses has been on the decline since 2008, with more businesses closing than opening. The US Census Bureau confirmed the statistics, which was reported on by Gallup earlier this year. This startling trend also reaffirms a study released last year by the Brookings Institute, which noted that 2009, 2010, and 2011 saw the collapse of businesses faster than their creation.

The annoying thing about the Brookings Institute’s study is that they do not attribute the decline to anything in particular, saying that they need “a more complete knowledge about what drives dynamism, and especially entrepreneurship, than currently exists.” This is utter nonsense, and reinforces why I typically don’t pay attention to what the Brookings Institute says. They are providing political cover for the Obama Administration with their non-conclusive conclusion about the decline of new business.

The most suffocating factor is the sharp rise of federal regulations, which now cost the American economy nearly $1.9 trillion every year — more than 10% of our nation’s GDP. Add in state and local regulations, and that total is even higher.

Not surprisingly, the rates of business start-ups and deaths have changed for the worse as regulatory costs have grown. No wonder: Anyone who wants to stay in business has to keep finding more money to pay for higher costs, while anyone who wants to start a new business has to clear financial and legal barriers that get taller every year. The founder of Subway recently remarked that his company “would not exist” if today’s regulatory burden had existed when he started it in the 1960s.

Simply look at the past few years to see how the regulatory state has grown. Between 2009 and 2013, the federal government added $494 billion in regulatory costs to the American economy. The highlight was 2012, when President Obama and his executive agencies published over $236 billion in new costs. As for 2014, the federal government announced over 79,000 pages of new regulations, costing a total of $181.5 billion.

That’s equivalent to 3.5 million median family incomes. But it isn’t flowing to families through new jobs and higher wages — it’s lost on lawyers, paperwork and other compliance costs.

I was curious what some of the largest wealth managers had to say about the economy. Was anyone talking about the recovery (or lack thereof)? High taxes? Regulation? I took a sampling of the CEOs of Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley to see what, if anything, they’ve publicly discussed in the last 6 months to a year. The only one that has spoken on the subject is Jamie Dimon of Chase, who stated earlier this year that “the U.S. economy is doing well” but he blamed poor government and regulatory policies for hurting growth. “We’re growing at 2.5 percent. We should be doing better. “I blame them all,” Dimon said of politicians. “To me, they waste a lot of time pointing fingers and not collaborating.”

But they do spend time regulating. This is the canary in the coalmine which impacts new and potential entrepreneurs. Many see the start up costs and the regulatory headaches as too burdensome a barrier to even begin, thus deciding it’s not worth it. Small businesses have been the backbone of America, the pathway to our greatness, and this recent, rapid decline in American business is most alarming.