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Government Employees Outnumber Manufacturing Employees

Data compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that government employees in the United States outnumber manufacturing employees by 9,932,000, according to data released today. CNS news has the highlights:

Federal, state and local government employed 22,213,000 people in August, while the manufacturing sector employed 12,281,000.

The BLS has published seasonally-adjusted month-by-month employment data for both government and manufacturing going back to 1939. For half a century—from January 1939 through July 1989—manufacturing employment always exceeded government employment in the United States, according to these numbers.

Then, in August 1989, the seasonally-adjusted employment numbers for government exceeded the employment numbers for manufacturing for the first time. That month, manufacturing employed 17,964,000 and government employed 17,989,000.

Manufacturing employment in the United States had peaked a decade before that in June 1979 at 19,553,000

From August 2015 to August 2016 seasonally-adjusted manufacturing employment declined by 37,000–dropping from 12,318,000 last August to 12,281,000 this August.

The 22,213,000 government employees in August, according to the BLS, included 2,790,000 federal employees, 5,120,000 state government employees, and 14,303,000 local government employees.

The Minimum Wage and Middle Income Workers

One of the unintended results of minimum wage theory is how the artificial wage increase affects those workers who were not recipients of the government’s generosity. The sudden jump to $13 or $15 an hour for the lower income workers does not translate into the same sort of wage increase for the middle income workers — and this act breeds contempt. Those that have worked hard and earn a decent wage see below them receive this pay increase, and they understandably now want the same kind of jump. And why shouldn’t they? Should they be able to demand the same wage treatment? Will this beget a slippery slope? Or does this expose the very reason why government should stay out of the business of picking winners and loser among workers in the private sector?

HHS Attempting to Frame Obamacare Losses to Insurers as a Government Obligation

A must read from the Washington Examiner today on the subject of Obamacare, insurance companies, and bailouts. I republished the article in full.

The Department of Health and Human Services attempted to reassure private insurers on Thursday that they’ll be able to recover losses from participating in Obamacare by claiming it was an “obligation” of the U.S. government to bail them out.

At issue is a provision within the law known as the risk corridors program. Under the program, which runs from 2014 through 2016, the federal government is to collect money from health insurers doing better than expected and use those funds to provide a federal backstop to other insurers who incur larger than expected losses from rising medical claims. The idea was to provide training wheels to insurers in the first years of Obamacare’s implementation, and to take away any incentive for insurers to cherry pick only the healthiest customers.

Republicans, fearing that this could turn into an open-ended government bailout in the event of industry-wide losses, included a provision in last year’s spending bill that limited the program, requiring HHS to pay out only from the pool of money collected, rather than supplementing it with other sources of government funding. President Obama signed that bill.

Now that insurers have been able to look at medical claims, what they’ve found is that enrollees in Obamacare are disproportionately sicker, and losses are piling up. For the 2014 benefit year, insurers losing more than expected asked for $2.87 billion in government payments through the risk corridors program, but HHS only collected $362 million from insurers performing better than expected. Thus, the funds available to the federal government only amounts to 12.6 percent of what insurers argue that they’re owed.

So insurers are not happy. And now the industry lobbying group America’s Health Insurance Plans — which happens to be helmed by Marilyn Tavenner, who previously oversaw the implementation of Obamacare as head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services — is aggressively fighting for more money.

In a statement issued Thursday, the same day that the nation’s largest insurer, UnitedHealth announced it may exit Obamacare due to mounting losses, Tavenner said, “We’ve been very clear with the administration about the serious challenges facing consumers and health plans in this Exchange market. Most recently, nearly 800,000 Americans have faced coverage disruptions as a result of the significant and unexpected shortfall with the risk corridors program. When health plans cannot rely on the government to meet its obligations, individuals and families are harmed as a result. The administration must act to ensure this program works as intended and consumers are protected.”

In an effort to reassure the industry, CMS, the HHS agency Tavenner previously led, issued guidance reiterating that HHS would use money collected from insurers in 2015 and possibly 2016 to make up the $2.5 billion shortfall that exists in 2014.

But what happens if there still isn’t enough money, and after 2016, the program is taking in less than the money sought by insurers?

HHS said it, would “explore other sources of funding for risk corridors payments, subject to the availability of appropriations. This includes working with Congress on the necessary funding for outstanding risk corridors payments.”

The agency further added: “HHS recognizes that the Affordable Care Act requires the Secretary to make full payments to issuers, and HHS is recording those amounts that remain unpaid following our 12.6 percent payment this winter as fiscal year 2015 obligation of the United States government for which full payment is required.”

In reality, this doesn’t mean much at all. Risk corridor payments for 2016 won’t be due until mid-2017, and by that point, it will be an issue for a future Congress and future president. Nothing that a previous administration’s HHS said in 2015 will really matter.

That said, this is another demonstration that for all of Obama’s sanctimonious rhetoric about taking on insurance companies. In reality, his signature legislative achievement was to put government in bed with private insurers. And now that his pet project backfired, he wants taxpayers to take care of those very insurance companies he spent years railing against.

Massive Federal Debt, Cost Per Full Time Worker Soars

Thank goodness for CNS News. They continuously number crunch federal numbers so that we can keep apace with the ever-growing national debt. The bottom line? Debt has increased $7.5 trillion since Obama took office.

“The federal government drove $789,473,350,613.20 deeper into debt in calendar year 2014, an increase that equaled $6,875 per household, $7,458 per full-time year-round worker, and $8,853 per full-time year-round private-sector worker.

According to the Treasury, the debt started calendar year 2014 at $17,351,970,784,950.10 and ended it at $18,141,444,135,563.30.

When Obama took office on Jan. 20, 2009, the debt was $10,626,877,048,913.08. Since then, it has increased $7,514,567,086,650.22–which is $65,443 per household, $70,985 per full-time worker and $84,266 per full-time private-sector worker.

In 2013, according to the Census Bureau there were 105,862,000 full-time year-round workers in the United States. The $789,473,350,613.20 increase in the federal debt during 2014 worked out to $7,457.57 for each of those full-time year-round workers.

Those 105,862,000 full-time year-round workers included 16,685,000 federal, state and local government workers and 89,177,000 private-sector workers.

The $789,473,350,613.20 in new federal debt in 2014 equaled $8,852.88 for each of the 89,177,000 full-time private-sector workers in the country.

As of December 2013, there were 114,826,000 households in the country, according to the Census Bureau. The $789,473,350,613.20 in new debt equaled $6,875.39 per household.

Ten years ago, at the end of 2004, the federal debt was $7,596,142,802,424.14. Since then, it has grown by $10,545,301,333,139.16—an average pace of $1,054,530,133,313.92 per year.”

It Doesn’t Matter If You Are Keynesian Or Not — You Still Have To Pay It Back

Everyone knows that Greece is so far in debt that it is actually impossible for them to ever repay it all. France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and most of the rest of the EU is not much better. Even worse than Greece is Japan’s debt; at over 200% of GDP — and growing — it seems hopeless, despite some reputable economists thoughts that since a large portion of the debt is owed by one branch of their government to another, it is somehow not all that bad.

The U.S. debt is now $18 trillion and still growing at a rate higher than it ever was before Obama took office (Obama and Democrat protestations being wrong). We recently issued $1 trillion in new debt just to pay off old debt, despite bringing in record revenues. And when unfunded promises to pay for Social Security and Medicare benefits are factored into our liabilities, this debt becomes more than $100 trillion – an amount that has no more likelihood of being paid than Greece’s debt.

Yet all of these countries are fighting over the same issue. Every country knows that its debt was honorably borrowed, and needs to be repaid. One would think that, like an individual or family that incurred too much debt, government spending needs to be reduced to below the level of income, with the excess going to pay down debt. A program to stabilize must present itself as fiscally sustainable so businesses, citizens, and creditors can have renewed confidence.

But the Keynesian mentality – which would argue that such austerity measures would contract the size of the economy, thereby making it even more difficult to pay down debt – is unfortunately winning the day.

I do not believe that many honorable and intelligent people actually believe in this Keynesianism. It is just so much easier politically to tell your constituents that government handouts don’t need to be cut — because in doing so, you risk losing reelection. And populist leaders have a great time casting their (responsible) opponents as scrooges, taking advantage of the lesser educated and poorer individuals who will ultimately be hurt most by these irresponsible, spendthrift policies.

Why do I believe that the Keynesian theory is wrong? Not because of some sophisticated economic theory, but rather some simple history and logic, in no particular order:

1) Government spending wholeheartedly crowds out private spending, substituting inefficient political and crony-based spending for free-market, give-the-public-what-they want spending.

2) After World War II, government spending (military, etc.) dried up overnight. But a free-market, non-coercive environment at the time, allowed private investment to flourish and more than make up for the decline in government spending.

3) The outrageous level of U.S. spending in the last six years has resulted in the poorest recovery since the New Deal; FDR’s meddling only prolonged America’s anemic recovery. But the current sluggish economy should not be surprising either, since Obama’s policies are taken directly from FDR – raising taxes, bad mouthing as well as over-regulating businesses, giving organized labor excessive power, instituting policies that discourage people from working, and hurting international trade.

4) There is no evidence, in the last 50 years, that Keynesian theory worked in the real world. On the contrary, one need not look too far to Northern Europe vs Southern Europe — Latvia compared to Greece — to see the results of strict austerity measures vs fiscal tepidness, and each government’s current level of sustainability. Keynes fails wholeheartedly.

The bottom line is, if you borrow money, you have to pay it back. Just because you irresponsibly spent the money does not give you an out. Just because you can think of reasons to delay repayment, doesn’t mean that you should. Just because you are a government doesn’t mean you are exempt from your fiduciary responsibilities. Historically, the only countries to get their debt under control have been those that have cut spending.

Get spending under control and start paying down the national debt!