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No New Rate Hike

A couple of days ago, I wrote about my theory that as long as the interest rates stay low, the stock market will remain high — because no one has any other place for investment. The rates have stay historically low for nearly a decade now, so investors have seen little-to-no return in many usual places.

Just today, we hear the the Fed has rejected yet another rate hike, and furthermore, has “downgraded its forecast for economic growth in 2016 for the third time this year. It now projects growth this year to be 1.8%. In June it forecast growth of 2%.

As the Fed has hesitated to raise rates, there is a growing debate about its credibility. Many economists and investors say the Fed’s hesitancy to raise rates — and conflicting messages from its top leaders — has eroded public confidence in the central bank.”

It is unlikely that a rate hike will happen on November 1-2, so close to the election. If a rate hike is to happen, it would be more likely to be in mid-December. It will be interesting to see how both the markets, and the Fed, react to the outcome of the November elections.

Low Interest Rates, High Stock Market

Did you even notice that whenever the economy issues bad results (a weak jobs report, etc.), the stock market goes UP? Logic would seemingly have it be the opposite. If the economy was weak, one would assume the stock market would respond negatively. But that’s not really the case.

For years, I couldn’t understand it — how stupid could the market be? Why would the market do well? And why is it so important for interest rates to stay low? I think I have figured it out. Low rates are not good for the economy, but they ARE good for the stock market. See, the stock market and economy are not necessarily affected the same way. When rates stay low, investors have to put their money in the stock market because there is no alternative.

Think about it — with non-existent interest rates, you don’t get an return on investment (ROI) anywhere. People have no alternative avenues for investing their money except to put it in the stock market. So even though this economy is performing very sluggishly, the Feds can point to the strong market as evidence that their policies are succeeding, because most people consider the economy and stock market to be fairly synonymous with each other — but they are not.

The economy is still underperforming because of so many terrible policies: over-regulation, increased business fines, higher taxes, Obamacare, Dodd-Frank — these are all major reasons why businesses are struggling, but that doesn’t necessarily affect the stock market; that’s why the stock market doesn’t react the same way when business data is terrible.

Keeping interest rates low is not helping the economy at all — but it does help the stock market, which mask the inherent policy problems. Virtually every part of Hillary’s economic plans are terrible, for the economy, jobs, etc. The economy will never really recover until the systemic problems are fixed.

Greg Ip Misses It Again on Interest Rates and the Economy

Here’s another ridiculous article by “economist” Grep Ip, wondering aloud once again why the economy isn’t doing any better, and why low interest rates haven’t helped. Either he’s truly incompetent as an economist not to see the detrimental effects of government policies on businesses and the economy, or he’s playing dumb to give cover to the Obama Administration by pretending their policies aren’t harmful and looking the other way in his analysis.

Ip writes, “One of the great mysteries of the recovery is why low interest rates have done so little to lift business investment. After all, that is supposed to be one of the ways monetary policy works: A lower cost of capital makes any project more viable. But what if lower interest rates are actually hurting investment by encouraging companies to pay dividends or buyback stock instead?”

This is exactly what is happening — it’s no mystery. But he draws no substantial conclusions. If he would just come down from his ivory tower of what is “supposed to happen” under Keynesian economics, and actually observe what is happening, he might actually learn something. The fact of the matter is, Obama’s policies are destroying our business environment and eliminating the opportunity.

The burden of over-regulation, the increases in taxes, the litigation-friendly environment, the overreaching government agencies, Obamacare, unprecedented debt and more — all of these factors cause businesses to essentially pause their business strategy. Who in their right mind really would consider substantial investment in an environment that is hostile to workers, and an economy that is now seeing more businesses close instead of open? The risk is often too great. Sitting it out is a safer bet.

Not only is it not a mystery as to why low interest rates haven’t spurred growth, it’s a no-brainer. To ignore the government’s effect on business and the economy is unprofessional and incompetent. “It’s the government, stupid!”

IRS Tax Tip 2016-41: Interest Rates

Interest Rates Remain the Same for the Second Quarter of 2016

WASHINGTON – The Internal Revenue Service today announced that interest rates will remain the same for the calendar quarter beginning April 1, 2016. The rates will be:

  • three (3) percent for overpayments [two (2) percent in the case of a corporation];
  • one-half (0.5) percent for the portion of a corporate overpayment exceeding $10,000.
  • three (3) percent for underpayments; and
  • five (5) percent for large corporate underpayments.

Under the Internal Revenue Code, the rate of interest is determined on a quarterly basis. For taxpayers other than corporations, the overpayment and underpayment rate is the federal short-term rate plus 3 percentage points.

Generally, in the case of a corporation, the underpayment rate is the federal short-term rate plus 3 percentage points and the overpayment rate is the federal short-term rate plus 2 percentage points. The rate for large corporate underpayments is the federal short-term rate plus 5 percentage points. The rate on the portion of a corporate overpayment of tax exceeding $10,000 for a taxable period is the federal short-term rate plus one-half (0.5) of a percentage point.

The interest rates announced today are computed from the federal short-term rate determined during Jan. 2016 to take effect Feb. 1, 2016, based on daily compounding.

Revenue Ruling 2016-06, announcing the rates of interest, is attached and will appear in Internal Revenue Bulletin 2016-13, dated March 28, 2016.

Yellin’ About Yellen’s Interest Rates

Janet Yellen, the new Fed Chairman, recently spoke about her decision to continue low interest rates, calling the policy “beneficial.” As the WSJ noted, Yellen described how she seeks to assure the markets:

“By keeping interest rates low, we are trying to make homes more affordable and revive the housing market,” she said. “We are trying to make it cheaper for businesses to build, expand and hire. We are trying to lower the costs of buying a car that can carry a worker to a new job and kids to school, and our policies are also spurring the revival of the auto industry.”

The problem with Yellen’s approach to the economy is that she completely misunderstands how interest rates affect the economy, an incredulous thing considering that she is the Fed Chairman.

When Yellen describes the benefits of low interest rates, she gives several reasons for them: homeownership, business growth, and car prices. However, the real estate market and auto industries are actually doing fine, and businesses are not using low interest rates to borrow to hire.

The crux of the problem is that all of Yellen’s examples analyze the economy from a consumption perspective. While consumption does affect the economy, it is not nearly a powerful a stimulant as investment. Any basic economics course will tell you that.
The real reason for the continued sluggishness is that investors are prevented from earning any real and considerable income when interest rates remain low. When investors don’t see a decent return on investment (ROI), they stop investing.

What else? Couple the investment problem with the administration’s policies that hurt growth such as burdensome regulations, minimum wage increases, food stamp usage, and Unemployment Insurance extensions, and you have a recovery that is best described as tepid.

Yellen should know better than to appeal to emotion rather than basic economics when making her Fed decisions. The choice to continue low interest rates for at least another year guarantees an anaemic economy for the foreseeable future.