by | ARTICLES, BLOG, ECONOMY, ELECTIONS, POLITICS
I was shocked to read “Get Ready for the Biden Stock Boom” in the pages of the Wall Street Journal, written by a former editor of Barron’s, no less. Ed Finn really, really wants you to support Joe Biden and his article is full of so much wishful thinking that it reads like a Disney Fairy Tale — except in reality, there will be no happy ending.
To be fair, Ed Finn does acknowledge that the stock market will certainly experience some turbulence if Joe Biden is elected — but that’s because smart investors know that socialist policies are coming in the form of higher taxes, strangling regulation, and ridiculous legislation such as the “Green New Deal.” You think Obama was bad for the economy? Wait until Biden gets in there.
Yet after laying out the coming economic reality, Ed Finn still wants you to believe in Joe Biden, and the rest of his analysis is basically dependent on the word IF. You can’t make this up:
“IF a President Biden can control the federal budget deficit, IF he can forge better relationships with America’s trading partners, IF he can reverse some of President Trump’s anti-immigration policies, IF he can bring a less combative atmosphere to Washington and the nation, there is no reason to think that during his term average annual stock returns, including dividends, can’t be in the 10% range, as they have for the past 95 years.”
It should be noted that even with all the “if’s” coming true, they have no positive economic consequence. They would be nice, but not economically powerful.
How does he spell out how Joe Biden’s going to improve the economy: “Given Mr. Biden’s ambitious plans to use increased tax revenue to fund more spending on green energy, health care and infrastructure, it’s conceivable he could spur the U.S. economy enough to push annual stock returns to 15%.” Ed Finn must think that the readers of the Wall Street Journal are stupid. To think that anything relating to “green energy” isn’t detrimental to the economy is economically illiterate. We already have efficient fossil fuels, but the Democrats would happily pay three times as much for less energy to be environmentally woke — and that’s supposed to improve the economy? That’s either ignorant or socialist or both. And see how Finn continues to use wishful language: “it’s conceivable he could spur the U.S. economy enough to push annual stock returns to 15%.” That’s because neither Finn’s analysis nor Biden’s policies are actually grounded in any sort of economic reality, only fantasy.
On the other hand, what we do know is that there are multiple policy proposals that WILL have negative economic consequences, none of which will come close to offsetting any of the rosy positives that Finn is pinning his hopes on. The main threats Biden poses to the stock market are increased regulation and higher taxes. Increased regulation will inevitably result in slowed economic growth, and with that decreased profits and a less robust stock market. But that’s not even the worst of it. Two specific initiatives will affect the stock market both in the short- and long-term: 1) Raising taxes on corporate profits from 21% 28% and 2) Nearly doubling the capital-gains tax from 20% to 39.6% on income over $1 million/year — and don’t forget the investment-tax surcharge of 3.8%! Of course, Biden plans to raise taxes on nearly every taxpayer regardless.
Ed Finn ought to be ashamed for penning such an unrealistic economic outlook with Joe Biden at the helm. Increased taxation, crushing regulation, and impudent legislation never improves the economy or the lives of the American people.
by | ARTICLES, BLOG, BUSINESS, ECONOMY, FED, FREEDOM, GOVERNMENT, POLITICS
Did you even notice that whenever the economy issues good results (a strong jobs report, etc.), the stock market goes DOWN? Logic would seemingly have it be the opposite. If the economy was strong, one would assume the stock market would respond positively. But often that’s not really the case.
For years, I couldn’t understand it — how stupid could the market be? Why would the market do poorly? Wall Street professionals claim to understand it. They point out that the stock market and economy are not necessarily affected the same way. When the economy is strong, the market has often already gone up in anticipation of the improving economy. But with the stronger economy, the Fed is likely to hike interest rates, threatening the strong growth going forward. Also, with interest rates rising, investors have the alternative of earning fixed, safe rates of return by buying bonds.
Though I do follow that logic, I do not agree with it. My strong belief is that as long as the economy is strong, with sound existing economic policies in place, I believe that financial growth and profitability will continue. And I would view downturns caused by positive financial results as a buying opportunity.
The economy has begun the road to renewed growth – finally getting rid of the Obama stagnation caused by increasing taxes, stifling regulation, and anti-business sentiment. It’s unreasonable to believe that the concern of interest rates should have more sway than a growing economy. Even if interest rates rise, does anyone really believe that a business will forego an expansion opportunity just because borrowing costs are 1 or 2 percentage points higher?
Of course, it would make sense for the stock market to become weaker if President Trump goes ahead with his economically ignorant tariff and anti-free-trade policies, as well as his economically stagnating immigration restrictions.
But as for now, the fluctuations are a confirmation of a stronger economy and the multiple opportunities afforded to investors.
by | ARTICLES, BLOG, BUSINESS, ECONOMY, OBAMA, POLITICS
Did you even notice that whenever the economy issues bad results (a weak jobs report, etc.), the stock market goes UP? Logic would seemingly have it be the opposite. If the economy was weak, one would assume the stock market would respond negatively. But that’s not really the case.
For years, I couldn’t understand it — how stupid could the market be? Why would the market do well? And why is it so important for interest rates to stay low? I think I have figured it out. Low rates are not good for the economy, but they ARE good for the stock market. See, the stock market and economy are not necessarily affected the same way. When rates stay low, investors have to put their money in the stock market because there is no alternative.
Think about it — with non-existent interest rates, you don’t get an return on investment (ROI) anywhere. People have no alternative avenues for investing their money except to put it in the stock market. So even though this economy is performing very sluggishly, the Feds can point to the strong market as evidence that their policies are succeeding, because most people consider the economy and stock market to be fairly synonymous with each other — but they are not.
The economy is still underperforming because of so many terrible policies: over-regulation, increased business fines, higher taxes, Obamacare, Dodd-Frank — these are all major reasons why businesses are struggling, but that doesn’t necessarily affect the stock market; that’s why the stock market doesn’t react the same way when business data is terrible.
Keeping interest rates low is not helping the economy at all — but it does help the stock market, which mask the inherent policy problems. Virtually every part of Hillary’s economic plans are terrible, for the economy, jobs, etc. The economy will never really recover until the systemic problems are fixed.
