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Biden Won: What Does That Mean For Tax Changes?

Now that Biden has been elected President, it’s important to take stock of what tax changes are likely to be coming. Merrill Lynch did a good job putting together a side-by-side comparison of current tax law in four areas: income, estate, social security, and corporate, and then possible changes in those areas according to Biden’s campaign tax plans. The summary is below.

It is notable that in just about every instance, there will be a tax increase under Biden’s plans. How this will impact the economy, jobs, wages, and investments remains to be seen.

Romney and Roger Stone: Ridiculous

It’s really sad that Mitt Romney went off the deep end with regard to the commuting of Roger Stone’s sentence. Trump’s timing was definitely politically stupid and over the top. However, presidential pardons and commutations are often self-serving and inexplicable. Although Roger Stone was convicted of a relatively minor infraction of lying about something that was not of major significance, even that conviction was suspect because of clearly stated bias of the lead juror that should have led to a new trial. As such, his commutation was certainly less appalling compared to other pardons sometimes involving really horrific human beings.

Therefore, it is ridiculous that Mitt Romney declared Stone’s commutation was “unprecedented, historic corruption.” This is so absolutely wrong and incompetent that it could only be attributed the most vile case of Trump Derangement Syndrome. It seems that Mitt Romney either doesn’t know his history or is flat-out ignoring the fact that Stone’s commutation is one of a long line of Presidents using their Constitutional powers of pardon to benefit friends. Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon. Richard Nixon pardoned Jimmy Hoffa. Bill Clinton pardoned his brother Roger Clinton and Marc Rich, the “fugitive financier.”  Clinton also commuted the sentences of 16 members of FALN, the terrorists responsible for more than 130 bombings spanning several years against the wishes of Congress. Likewise, Obama commuted the sentence of one of the FALN masterminds, Oscar Lopez Rivera, who rejected the original commutation in 1999.  Surely these pale in comparison to Roger Stone? As it is, Stone remains a convicted felon because he did not receive a full presidential pardon so he is not completely off the hook.

Romney’s assertions are completely unfounded and shows that his judgement continues to be unreliable. His response was so off the charts that it should make everyone doubt the credibility of anything that he says.

Trump’s Elimination of Obamacare Tax Gouging Should Not Be Considered a Tax Cut

I’m sick and tired of reading over and over again in places both liberal and conservative that Trump’s (as well as the Republican’s) proposed tax reforms are going to give the lion’s share of the cuts to the top 1%. The entire concept is totally distorted.

In fact, nobody has been talking about the series of tax changes that occurred when Obama and his Democrat cronies passed the Obamacare increases. These raised the Bush tax rates on only the wealthiest from 36%  – 39.6 % and then again raised the tax rates on the wealthiest by adding a net investment income tax (NIIT), otherwise known as the “Obamacare tax,” which covered all investment income. The increase also raised capital gains tax on the wealthiest from 15% – 20%. When the 3.8% tax is added, capital gains rates effectively went from 15%- 23.8% — an increase of almost 60%. That’s ridiculous!

Those ludicrous tax increases were principally responsible — along with the hemorrhage of regulations coming out of the Obama administration — for the horrific economic performance since Obama took office. The first step of any meaningful tax reform should be to reverse those Obamacare tax increases, which went 100% to the higher income individuals, and 0% to the middle class and lower income. The reversal of those insane tax increases should in no way be considered a tax cut. It is just restoring what was in fact an egregious toxin on our entire economy.

Trump Wins — Here’s His Tax Proposal

Over the next week or two, I’ll do a more thorough analysis of portions of Trump’s tax plan. Here it is in full, so that you don’t have to go searching for it:

DONALD J. TRUMP’S VISION

  • Reduce taxes across-the-board, especially for working and middle-income Americans who will receive a massive tax reduction.
  • Ensure the rich will pay their fair share, but no one will pay so much that it destroys jobs or undermines our ability to compete.
  • Eliminate special interest loopholes, make our business tax rate more competitive to keep jobs in America, create new opportunities and revitalize our economy.
  • Reduce the cost of childcare by allowing families to fully deduct the average cost of childcare from their taxes, including stay-at-home parents.

 

TAX LAW CHANGES

The Trump Plan will revise and update both the individual and corporate tax codes:

Individual Income Tax

Tax rates

The Trump Plan will collapse the current seven tax brackets to three brackets. The rates and breakpoints are as shown below. Low-income Americans will have an effective income tax rate of 0. The tax brackets are similar to those in the House GOP tax blueprint.

Brackets & Rates for Married-Joint filers:
Less than $75,000: 12%
More than $75,000 but less than $225,000: 25%
More than $225,000: 33%
*Brackets for single filers are ½ of these amounts

The Trump Plan will retain the existing capital gains rate structure (maximum rate of 20 percent) with tax brackets shown above. Carried interest will be taxed as ordinary income.

The 3.8 percent Obamacare tax on investment income will be repealed, as will the alternative minimum tax.

Deductions

The Trump Plan will increase the standard deduction for joint filers to $30,000, from $12,600, and the standard deduction for single filers will be $15,000. The personal exemptions will be eliminated as will the head-of-household filing status.

In addition, the Trump Plan will cap itemized deductions at $200,000 for Married-Joint filers or $100,000 for Single filers.

Death Tax

The Trump Plan will repeal the death tax, but capital gains held until death and valued over $10 million will be subject to tax to exempt small businesses and family farms. To prevent abuse, contributions of appreciated assets into a private charity established by the decedent or the decedent’s relatives will be disallowed.

Childcare

Americans will be able to take an above-the-line deduction for children under age 13 that will be capped at state average for age of child, and for eldercare for a dependent. The exclusion will not be available to taxpayers with total income over $500,000 Married-Joint /$250,000 Single, and because of the cap on the size of the benefit, working and middle class families will see the largest percentage reduction in their taxable income.

The childcare exclusion would be provided to families who use stay-at-home parents or grandparents as well as those who use paid caregivers, and would be limited to 4 children per taxpayer. The eldercare exclusion would be capped at $5,000 per year. The cap would increase each year at the rate of inflation.

The Trump Plan would offer spending rebates for childcare expenses to certain low-income taxpayers through the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). The rebate would be equal to 7.65 percent of remaining eligible childcare expenses, subject to a cap of half of the payroll taxes paid by the taxpayer (based on the lower-earning parent in a two-earner household).

This rebate would be available to married joint filers earning $62,400 ($31,200 for single taxpayers) or less. Limitations on costs eligible for exclusion and the number of beneficiaries would be the same as for the basic exclusion. The ceiling would increase with inflation each year.

All taxpayers would be able to establish Dependent Care Savings Accounts (DCSAs) for the benefit of specific individuals, including unborn children. Total annual contributions to a DCSA are limited to $2,000 per year from all sources, which include the account owner (parent in the case of a minor or the person establishing elder care account), immediate family members of the account owner, and the employer of the account owner. When established for children, the funds remaining in the account when the child reaches 18 can be used for education expenses, but additional contributions could not be made.

To encourage lower-income families to establish DCSAs for their children, the government will provide a 50 percent match on parental contributions of up to $1,000 per year for these households. When parents fill out their taxes they can check a box to directly deposit any portion of their EITC into their Dependent Care Savings Account. All deposits and earnings thereon will be free from taxation, and unused balances can rollover from year to year.

Business Tax

The Trump Plan will lower the business tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent, and eliminate the corporate alternative minimum tax. This rate is available to all businesses, both small and large, that want to retain the profits within the business.

It will provide a deemed repatriation of corporate profits held offshore at a one-time tax rate of 10 percent.

It eliminates most corporate tax expenditures except for the Research and Development credit.

Firms engaged in manufacturing in the US may elect to expense capital investment and lose the deductibility of corporate interest expense. An election once made can only be revoked within the first 3 years of election; if revoked, returns for prior years would need to be amended to show revised status. After 3 years, election is irrevocable.

The annual cap for the business tax credit for on-site childcare authorized by Sec. 205 of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 would be increased to $500,000 per year (up from $150,000) and recapture period would be reduced to 5 years (down from 10 years).

Businesses that pay a portion of an employee’s childcare expenses can exclude those contributions from income. Employees who are recipients of direct employer subsidies would not be able to exclude those costs from the individual income tax and the costs of direct subsidies to employees could not be used as a cost eligible for the credit.

Musings For And Against Trump

My good friend Don Boudreaux recently wondered aloud about the possibility of a Trump presidency, where he writes,

“I can understand and appreciate why some people believe that Donald Trump would be a less-dangerous president than would Hillary Clinton. (Although I no longer hold that view, I once did. And I concede that my current reckoning of the relative risks might be mistaken.) But I cannot understand why any sensible person believes that a Pres. Trump would serve any good purpose (beyond a Pres. Trump preventing there being a Pres. H. Clinton). I cannot understand why any sensible person thinks that a Pres. Trump will diminish rent-seeking and otherwise make the U.S. government less hostile than it currently is to Americans’ freedoms and prosperity.

Pres. Trump’s politically incorrect harrumphing and mad verbal ejaculations will no doubt give heartburn to “Progressive” academics with offices on the Charles and to “Progressive” editorialists with offices in Manhattan. But so what? Is a man such as Trump – a man so ignorant of civics, so boastfully boorish, so openly contemptuous of the rule of law, so flamingly ignorant of economics, so nastily bullying, so full of nativist fallacies, so fond of (and skilled at) rousing the rabble, and so megalomaniacal – likely to be someone who does positive good does not do great harm? Uh-uh.”

On the other hand, one could argue that the most important reason to vote for Trump is a chance to not screw up the Supreme Court for generations.

If Hillary wins and brings a Democrat Congress, we are in a Socialist regulatory state. If Trump wins, with a Republican Congress, the Congress will not pass any of his agenda.