When Biden was a candidate, one of his proposals was to raise the capital gains tax (which also applies to dividends) to 39.6%. When I wrote about it at the time, it sounded completely outrageous that any serious candidate for President of the United States would willfully consider implementing such a devastating levy. We had already experienced the negative effects of Obama’s 23.8% tax on capital gains which contributed to the sluggish economic recovery during the Obama administration, and his Vice President now wanted to raise the capital gains rate even higher?
Unfortunately, Biden’s plan has been introduced and may be coming to fruition. This week he indeed announced a new 39.6% capital gains rate (43.4% including the Obamacare add-on), which nearly doubles the current effective rate of 20% (23.8% including the Obamacare add-on).
Yet that’s not the worst of it. Some states with a large concentration of wealthy people and high performing businesses, such as California and New York have recently raised taxes, so taxpayers in those localities will pay much more. The absolute worst area would be NYC; after factoring in local taxes as well as the recent state tax increase, high income earners would face a rate of 57%!
Remember, Economics 1a teaches that when you tax something you get less of it. Taxing investments this way guarantees that investment – economic growth and GDP – will decrease.
Furthermore, this increase is outrageous as a matter of equity and fairness. Taxation of dividends and capital gains is a second tax on the same income – having already been taxed at the corporate level. No other major country double taxes this income. That is the reason dividends and capital gains are taxed at a lower level now – and they should be reduced, not doubled.
Furthermore, raising taxes on capital gains does nothing to raise revenue. Because people have discretion as to whether or when to sell assets, higher capital gains rates invariably lead to lower tax collections! Furthermore, it discourages the sale of less productive assets thereby reducing investment opportunities and economic growth. Even President Obama acknowledged that higher capital gains taxes won’t raise revenue – he was forced to admit that his irrational, hypocritical and wrongheaded rationale was to promote “fairness”!
A massive capital gains tax such as the one proposed by Biden will be inequitable, destructive, and clearly detrimental to our economy and the very people Biden states he is intending to help.
One of the most overlooked yet troubling aspects of Biden’s plan is his doubling of the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) tax. GILTI taxes items that generate foreign income and profits owned by American companies with foreign affiliates. This is troubling, because GILTI taxes American companies on income that has virtually nothing to do with anything in the United States. It’s bad enough that the current tax rate is 10.5%; Biden wants to raise this to 21%.
The tax laws of every developed country – except the US – provide that their companies do not pay tax on earnings from outside their country. Thus a German company earning money from activities in China or the UK pay taxes only to that jurisdiction – not to Germany. The US always taxed US companies on earnings from abroad, as soon as that money was returned to the US. That created a pretty stupid situation, encouraging these companies to leave this money outside of the US, and invest it in foreign, non US ventures.
The GILTI tax was created as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (“TCJA”) of 2017 as part of the attempt to fix this situation. What the TCJA did was require that all companies with foreign operations have to pay a penalty tax on all the money accumulated abroad, going back to the ‘80s; this rate was low and spread over 8 years. In exchange for it, the idea was that US companies would now be on par with other countries, in a territorial formation. In other words, pay a low tax on the money the US company never repatriated, repatriate it, and then in the future, you don’t pay tax on it, thereby discouraging profit shifting.
But Congress lied. In addition to paying the upfront tax at a low rate and thereby getting a tax for the future, they couldn’t help themselves. They added the GILTI tax, so now it’s taxed whether it’s repatriated or not. And this is bad. Congress reneged a little bit, because the GILTI is a relatively low tax but because it is worldwide, and now they have to pay tax every year on these foreign profits. So companies paid upfront and now they have to pay this tax every year — albeit at a low rate — so now it’s worse.
Now what Biden is suggesting with the GILTI tax is basically fraudulent. People paid that upfront fee so not to have to pay taxes — and now with this proposed 21% rate — is like fraud against American international companies. The 2017 tax act required an upfront benefit that got future benefits, now Biden wants to take away the future benefits.
GILTI puts American companies operating abroad at a competitive disadvantage. The foreign affiliates already have to pay a penalty tax just to be on equivalent footing with other companies abroad (companies that don’t have to pay the GILTI tax here, mind you). GILTI then tacked on a 10.5% tax and now Biden wants to double it — when it should be ZERO.
Biden’s plan to double GILTI goes hand-in-hand with his overall plan to tax U.S. businesses (he also wants to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% and add a 15% minimum tax based on profit reported on financial statements.) Going after businesses is already bad policy and his desire to double GILTI shows his ignorance and his willingness to further erode American competitiveness.
The amount of money Biden’s plan will raise is relatively insignificant (roughly $300 billion over the next ten years) but his attack on businesses is mean-spirited; it hurts our country by making our domestic companies less able to compete abroad in foreign markets. Nevermind that foreign income shouldn’t even be taxed at all! How can Biden justify raising taxes in a way that will make the United States less competitive and will reduce jobs? Increased taxes are a disincentive towards investing and job creation and will only hurt our economy.
Now that Biden has been elected President, it’s important to take stock of what tax changes are likely to be coming. Merrill Lynch did a good job putting together a side-by-side comparison of current tax law in four areas: income, estate, social security, and corporate, and then possible changes in those areas according to Biden’s campaign tax plans. The summary is below.
It is notable that in just about every instance, there will be a tax increase under Biden’s plans. How this will impact the economy, jobs, wages, and investments remains to be seen.
As Biden is gaining closer to winning the upcoming election, his economic plan deserves more scrutiny. So far, Biden is clearly looking to Obama for his policy aspirations. Unfortunately, Obama was following FDR’s playbook to the detriment of our economy. Let’s take a look:
Obama’s policies resulted in the poorest recovery since the New Deal, just as FDR’s meddling only prolonged America’s longest depression ever. Obama followed FDR’s failed playbook – he raised taxes, over-regulated businesses, gave organized labor excessive power, instituted policies that discouraged people from working, and hurt international trade.
Firmly entrenched in Keynesian economics, Obama believed in government spending while wholeheartedly crowding out private spending; he substituted inefficient political and crony-based spending for free-market, give-the-public-what-they want spending.
This week in the WSJ, Jay Starkman issued a warning on Biden’s plans, in “Bidenomics May Repeat FDR’s Blunder.” He notes, “Today the U.S. economy is recovering from a great crash, as it was before Roosevelt’s tax onslaught. Unfortunately, Mr. Biden doesn’t seem to have learned the right lessons. Should he win in November, he proposes to cancel the Trump tax cuts, raising the top federal income-tax rate back to 39.6%, and raise the corporate income tax from 21% to 28%. He also promises to limit low capital-gains tax rates to the first $1 million in profits and extend the full Social Security tax to income above $400,000.” With Biden also promising to increase regulation and institute energy policy that will produce less energy at a much higher cost, danger is in the wind.
Why go back to the policies that have so clearly failed us before. After three years of robust economic activity during Trump’s administration before the onslaught of COVID, this country can neither risk nor afford Biden’s plans.
Democrat Presidential Candidate Joe Biden not only wants to return capital gains to Obama-era rates, but furthermore he would increase them while simultaneously returning the top rate on ordinary income. Biden has said, “I believe we should, in fact, the capital gains tax should be at what the highest minimum tax should be; we should raise the tax back to 39.6 percent instead of 20 percent.”
Add to that the 3.8% Obamacare tax (NIIT) instituted in 2013, and he would have some taxpayers effectively paying a 43.4% long-term capital gains tax! The current total top rate is 23.8%
Biden should know better. The actual impact of raising the capital gains rate by the Obama administration was devastating to the economy. By discouraging the sale of assets, there was reduced capital available for new projects and opportunities, reducing job creation and wages, and resulting in lower revenue collection. Furthermore, the expected after tax rate of return on new projects went down, assuring that fewer of them went forward.
Additionally, there were a number of localities, like the state of California and New York City, which have tax rates of 12% or more and also a large concentration of wealthy people and high performing businesses. Obama’s capital gains rates of more than 37% brought elective capital projects to a crawl. And Biden wants to raise them even higher?
Shame on Biden. Why sell an asset to fund further investment and opportunity when the government takes a large share of the gain with the loss remaining all yours? It makes virtually no economic sense to do so. A higher capital gains rate put a stranglehold on risk-taking and available capital, and would negatively impact the economy.
